After SvG and McLaughlin, who is next in line for Supercars?

With van Gisbergen in NASCAR and McLaughlin settled in IndyCar, the question of which Kiwi driver is realistically positioned for a full-time Supercars seat in 2027 has a shorter answer list than you might expect.

Shane van Gisbergen is winning Cup Series races at Trackhouse and barely looking back. Scott McLaughlin has a multi-year IndyCar deal with Penske and the occasional Supercars wildcard appearance to keep the nostalgia industry ticking over. Both of them are, for all practical purposes, gone from the Australian series. The question the paddock has been quietly turning over is who, among the Kiwis currently racing, has a realistic shot at filling a full-time Supercars grid slot by 2027.

The honest answer is that the list is short, the pathway is narrowing, and anyone waiting for a call from a team principal is probably waiting too long.

What the entry list actually tells you

The Supercars grid has contracted. Where there were once 26 or 28 full-time entries, the realistic number for 2026 and beyond sits closer to 22 to 24. Gen3 has been expensive to operate, a couple of smaller outfits have either folded or downsized, and the manufacturer support that used to underwrite mid-grid teams has become more targeted. Fewer seats means fewer opportunities for drivers who aren't already known quantities to the team owners writing the cheques.

Of the Kiwi drivers currently active in Supercars or Super2, the ones who come up in conversation are a fairly consistent handful. Fabian Coulthard has been around long enough to be a known quantity, though his days at the front of the grid feel like a different era. Matthew Payne at Grove Racing is the name most people settle on when pressed, and with reason. He is young, he is quick enough that the engineers talk about him seriously, and Grove has the infrastructure to develop a driver rather than just running one. If the 2027 grid has a Kiwi on it as a genuine frontrunner, Payne is the logical candidate.

The complication is that Payne's path doesn't actually need the conversation about SvG or McLaughlin to validate it. He is building his case on his own terms, which is how it should work.

The Super2 problem

Below the main series, Super2 is both the traditional feeder and increasingly a dead end. Teams at that level operate on thin margins, driver funding matters enormously, and the step up to the main series requires a team to either promote from within or go looking for a driver with backing. Neither is straightforward.

There are Kiwi drivers in and around Super2 right now, but converting a solid Super2 campaign into a main series deal has always required the right timing, the right vacancy, and usually a sponsor who follows the driver upward. One hears the timing part is getting harder. The main series teams that might once have taken a developmental punt are now under more financial pressure to run experienced drivers who can attract corporate support from day one.

The wider motorsport context matters here. A Kiwi teenager who is genuinely quick now has more routes available than just the Supercars pathway. TRS feeds into Formula 4 and Formula 3 circuits. Lawson's career is the obvious reference point, even if the Formula 1 chapter has been bumpier than the early hype suggested. The point is that Australian touring cars are no longer the default destination for a talented Kiwi who wants to race professionally, and that changes who ends up in Super2 in the first place.

The wildcard question and what it actually means

There has been some discussion about whether van Gisbergen might take a wildcard Supercars appearance in the near term, similar to what McLaughlin has done at Bathurst. That conversation is more about legacy and television ratings than genuine grid implications. A wildcard is not a pathway back; it is a farewell lap with better optics. If SvG does appear at Mount Panorama in a Supercars entry at some point, it will be because the numbers work for the team running him and because the commercial story is worth telling. It will not be because he is considering a return to the series full-time.

For the next generation of Kiwi drivers, the absence of SvG and McLaughlin from the grid is less a door opening and more a reminder that the drivers who followed closely behind them in the standings have already settled into their own roles. The vacancy at the top of the New Zealand Supercars hierarchy is real, but filling it requires more than just being the best available Kiwi. It requires a team with a seat, a budget that works, and timing that lines up.

Payne is probably the answer to the 2027 question. Beyond him, the names get more speculative and the seats get harder to find. That is the familiar story of any era's transition, just with a smaller grid this time around.